Whenever we speak about AI, we think about AGI and singularity. San Altman, OpenAI CEO, predicted that AGI will arrive as soon as 2025, and Elan Musk predicted its arrival in 2026. This is just hype and is not reality. In 2025, there is not going to be AGI, and we will only deal with large language models (LLMs).
Let us define AGI and singularity. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a type of advanced AI that can think, learn and solve problems across a wide variety of tasks, just like human beings. Singularity is the idea of AI surpassing human intelligence. The system will improve continuously and will have substantial impact on the society.
Next Word Prediction is Not Intelligence
ChatGPT is a generative AI model that converses with us just like a human being. It can generate new content. All this is amazing. But this remains confined to recognizing patterns and predicting the next word or token by considering probabilities. This is achieved by getting trained on vast corpus of data. The model is not self-aware.
o1 Model — Whether the First Step for AGI
It is not the first step for AGI. o1 has been released in 2024. It does not answer a question directly. Instead, it makes a plan to answer it the best way. It then scrutinizes its response. It improves upon it. It continues to make it better. It is chained output. In 2025, we will witness many such chains but not AGI. It is a fixed framework which is neither dynamic nor scalable. It consumes more time. o1 is amazing. It takes us closer to achieve AGI.
Barriers to AGI
Human thinking is rapid and instinctive. AI works on patterns and misses the bus. AI struggles with context and misses important details. At present, AI outputs are linked to previous ones — these are autoregressive models. Mistakes can magnify.
In 2025, there will be more o1 models integrated to Chains of Thought. They will excel at specific tasks, will boost up productivity and surpass humans in some areas. It is an exciting development, but these would not constitute AGI.
Sam’s Claim on AGI
It seems more marking. It arrests attention. It could be considered over-the-top. However, it focuses on its biggest breakthrough.
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