Tesla has launched robotaxi service this week (June end, 2025). Handful of Model Y robotaxis are offering paid rides in Austin Texas. It is a milestone. Tesla claims that the cars it sells have already the hardware needed to be robotaxis, and its self-driving software trained on a vast fleet of existing cars driven by beta tester unpaid drivers who can handle virtually any situation on the road. Yet Austin launch has been defined by its boundaries (not by its potential) operating in a limited area with invite-only customers. Besides, there is safety-monitor in each vehicle.
Tesla’s core EV business profits are on the decline. Robotaxis and self-driving technology can pay off 10-15 years from now and the business does not make money today.
There could be a good market for robotaxis at some point in future. The competitor Waymo has adopted city-by-city approach.
Regulators are looking into traffic violations captured on video, but these are teething troubles.
The issue is how quickly Tesla can commercialize this. It has the edge — it uses sensor-lite approach, avoiding LiDAR. That makes robotaxis economical. However, it should scale up soon. It should reach 2.5 lac rides a week. The higher vehicle costs can be offset by more paid miles. There could be other competitors — Zoox from Amazon.
Maybe, one year from now, robotaxis may be rolled out in multiple cities. Yet today, the launch does not inspire confidence. Tesla also cannot defer the dream.
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